Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 4, 2026Final price 98¢ YES — the market gave this a 98% implied probability.

"Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?" resolved YES on August 4, 2026 at a final price of 98¢ YES — a 98% implied probability — after $30K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

98%

implied probability

YES 98¢NO 2¢

recent price

+2¢ over the window

+2¢

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$30K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±22¢ swing band
2d ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 100¢ (+79.7¢ in 15 min)
2d ago
High volatility
±35¢ swing band
2d ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 20¢ (-20¢ in 15 min)
2d ago
High volatility
±18.6¢ swing band
2d ago
High volatility
±23.6¢ swing band
2d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 35¢ (-64.7¢ in 15 min)
2d ago
High volatility
±12.2¢ swing band
2d ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 6¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
2d ago
High volatility
±16.9¢ swing band
2d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas. If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Quick answers

How did "Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 98¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 98¢ — an implied probability of 98%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.