Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? — live odds
"Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $412K has changed hands so far, $19K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 20, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$19K
24h volume
$412K
total volume
Oct 20, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 20, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$412K has been traded in total, $19K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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