Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? live odds

"Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $86K has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

3%

implied probability

YES NO 97¢

recent price

-67¢ over the window

-67¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$86K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±20.8¢ swing band

    12m ago
  • Odds swing

    0¢ → 72¢ (+71.9¢ in 15 min)

    12m ago
  • High volatility

    ±45.7¢ swing band

    27m ago
  • High volatility

    ±36.1¢ swing band

    42m ago
  • Odds swing

    5¢ → 72¢ (+67.4¢ in 15 min)

    42m ago
  • High volatility

    ±19.3¢ swing band

    57m ago
  • Odds swing

    2¢ → 72¢ (+70.4¢ in 15 min)

    57m ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.1¢ swing band

    1h ago
  • Odds swing

    70¢ → 1¢ (-69.2¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago
  • Odds swing

    72¢ → 11¢ (-61.4¢ in 15 min)

    2h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?"?

The market currently prices YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢, an implied probability of 3% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$86K has been traded in total, $3K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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