Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? live odds

"Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?" is trading at a 16% implied probability, with YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢. $341K has changed hands so far, $28 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 85¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$28

24h volume

$341K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±4.8¢ swing band

    16d ago
  • Odds swing

    17¢ → 3¢ (-14¢ in 15 min)

    16d ago
  • High volatility

    ±6.3¢ swing band

    16d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.7¢ swing band

    16d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.8¢ swing band

    37d ago
  • High volatility

    ±29¢ swing band

    75d ago
  • Odds swing

    84¢ → 23¢ (-61¢ in 15 min)

    75d ago
  • High volatility

    ±34.8¢ swing band

    75d ago
  • Odds swing

    97¢ → 23¢ (-74¢ in 15 min)

    75d ago
  • High volatility

    ±10.3¢ swing band

    75d ago
How this market resolves

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?"?

The market currently prices YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢, an implied probability of 16% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$341K has been traded in total, $28 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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