Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — live odds

Part of Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" is trading at a 53% implied probability, with YES at 53¢ and NO at 47¢. $240K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

53%

implied probability

YES 53¢NO 47¢

recent price

+7¢ over the window

+7¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$240K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±14.8¢ swing band
11d ago
High volatility
±33.3¢ swing band
36d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 2¢ (-9¢ in 15 min)
36d ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
36d ago
Odds swing
18¢ → 59¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)
36d ago
High volatility
±38¢ swing band
36d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 59¢ (+57¢ in 15 min)
36d ago
High volatility
±47.7¢ swing band
36d ago
High volatility
±32.4¢ swing band
52d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 99¢ (+88¢ in 15 min)
52d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.