Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? — live odds

"Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?" is trading at a 95% implied probability, with YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢. $421K has changed hands so far, $9K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$9K

24h volume

$421K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
13d ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 93¢ (+70¢ in 15 min)
13d ago
High volatility
±15.8¢ swing band
13d ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
13d ago
High volatility
±13.5¢ swing band
13d ago
High volatility
±23.3¢ swing band
13d ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 86¢ (+63¢ in 15 min)
13d ago
High volatility
±22¢ swing band
13d ago
Odds swing
88¢ → 23¢ (-65¢ in 15 min)
13d ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
13d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.