Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — live odds
2%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$36K
24h volume
$2.0M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 32d ago
High volatility
±7.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 88¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
Odds swing
74¢ → 93¢ (+19¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±32.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
92¢ → 80¢ (-12¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±19.1¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±6.2¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 86¢ (+11¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±21.5¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±8.2¢ swing band
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.0M has been traded in total, $36K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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