Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? — live odds

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"Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?" is trading at a 88% implied probability, with YES at 88¢ and NO at 12¢. $55K has changed hands so far, $696 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

88%

implied probability

YES 88¢NO 12¢

recent price

+7¢ over the window

+7¢

24h change

$696

24h volume

$55K

total volume

Sep 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.