Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 15, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?" resolved NO on August 15, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $33K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-9¢ over the window

-9¢

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$33K

total volume

Aug 15, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±34.1¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 69¢ (+66¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±12.6¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 94¢ (+25¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±15.6¢ swing band
12d ago
High volatility
±22.5¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 13¢ (-60¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±4.8¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
84¢ → 69¢ (-15¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±19.8¢ swing band
12d ago

How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).

Quick answers

How did "Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 15, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.