Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? — live odds
"Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?" is trading at a 65% implied probability, with YES at 65¢ and NO at 36¢. $640K has changed hands so far, $44K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 29, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
65%
implied probability
recent price
+5¢ over the window
+5¢
24h change
$44K
24h volume
$640K
total volume
Nov 29, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?"?
The market currently prices YES at 65¢ and NO at 36¢, an implied probability of 65% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 29, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://db.cec.gov.tw/.
How much has been traded on this market?
$640K has been traded in total, $44K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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