Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? — live odds
"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is trading at a 13% implied probability, with YES at 13¢ and NO at 87¢. $2.2M has changed hands so far, $25K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
13%
implied probability
recent price
+2¢ over the window
+2¢
24h change
$25K
24h volume
$2.2M
total volume
Dec 31, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 13¢ and NO at 87¢, an implied probability of 13% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.2M has been traded in total, $25K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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