Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? — live odds
"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $1.4M has changed hands so far, $922 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$922
24h volume
$1.4M
total volume
Sep 30, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.4M has been traded in total, $922 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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