Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? — live odds

"Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $1.0M has changed hands so far, $512 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

-67¢ over the window

-67¢

24h change

$512

24h volume

$1.0M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10.1¢ swing band
38d ago
Odds swing
86¢ → 70¢ (-15.9¢ in 15 min)
38d ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
38d ago
Odds swing
84¢ → 70¢ (-14¢ in 15 min)
38d ago
High volatility
±7.2¢ swing band
38d ago
High volatility
±12.7¢ swing band
39d ago
High volatility
±11.9¢ swing band
39d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 68¢ (-31.9¢ in 15 min)
39d ago
High volatility
±14.1¢ swing band
39d ago
Odds swing
93¢ → 83¢ (-10¢ in 15 min)
39d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.