Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 13, 2026Final price 2¢ YES — the market gave this a 2% implied probability.

Part of Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %· see all 5 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" resolved NO on August 13, 2026 at a final price of 2¢ YES — a 2% implied probability — after $38K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$38K

total volume

Aug 13, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Quick answers

How did "Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 13, 2026. Its final traded price was 2¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 2¢ — an implied probability of 2%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.