Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? live odds

"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" is trading at a 16% implied probability, with YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $13K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 85¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$13K

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±31.4¢ swing band

    85d ago
  • Odds swing

    81¢ → 31¢ (-50¢ in 15 min)

    85d ago
  • High volatility

    ±9.5¢ swing band

    85d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?"?

The market currently prices YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢, an implied probability of 16% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$1.2M has been traded in total, $13K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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