
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? — live odds
"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 95¢. $779K has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
5%
implied probability
recent price
-2¢ over the window
-2¢
24h change
$7K
24h volume
$779K
total volume
Sep 30, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 40d ago
High volatility
±35.6¢ swing band
- 40d ago
Odds swing
49¢ → 13¢ (-36¢ in 15 min)
- 40d ago
High volatility
±21.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 95¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$779K has been traded in total, $7K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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