
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? — final odds
"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?" resolved on October 1, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $2.2M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$1K
24h volume
$2.2M
total volume
Oct 1, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 131d ago
High volatility
±35.6¢ swing band
- 131d ago
Odds swing
49¢ → 13¢ (-36¢ in 15 min)
- 131d ago
High volatility
±21.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
Quick answers
How did "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?" resolve?
This market ended on October 1, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$2.2M was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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