Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 18, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?" resolved NO on August 18, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $112K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$28K

24h volume

$112K

total volume

Aug 18, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±20.8¢ swing band
58d ago
Odds swing
92¢ → 74¢ (-17.7¢ in 15 min)
58d ago
High volatility
±26.8¢ swing band
58d ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 10¢ (-56.1¢ in 15 min)
58d ago
High volatility
±9.5¢ swing band
58d ago
Odds swing
53¢ → 93¢ (+39.9¢ in 15 min)
58d ago
High volatility
±8.6¢ swing band
58d ago
High volatility
±9.6¢ swing band
58d ago
Odds swing
92¢ → 57¢ (-34.7¢ in 15 min)
58d ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
58d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 18, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.