Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? — final odds

Resolved NO · October 26, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?" resolved NO on October 26, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $138K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

1%

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

—

24h change

$73K

24h volume

$138K

total volume

Oct 26, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Quick answers

How did "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on October 26, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$138K was traded over the market's lifetime.

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