Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 5, 2026Final price 4¢ YES — the market gave this a 4% implied probability.

"Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?" resolved NO on November 5, 2026 at a final price of 4¢ YES — a 4% implied probability — after $34K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

4%

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

-3¢ over the window

-3¢

24h change

$88

24h volume

$34K

total volume

Nov 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Mangaung’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Mangaung following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Mangaung Municipal Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 5, 2026. Its final traded price was 4¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 4¢ — an implied probability of 4%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$34K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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