Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — live odds

Part of Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner· see all 9 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $457K has changed hands so far, $16K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$16K

24h volume

$457K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10.5¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
24¢ → 76¢ (+51.3¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±23¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
65¢ → 24¢ (-40.4¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±16.2¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
28¢ → 70¢ (+41.7¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±6.5¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
87¢ → 28¢ (-58.8¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±13¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
65¢ → 5¢ (-59.9¢ in 15 min)
43d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.