Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? — live odds

Part of Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?· see all 11 outcomes →📲 Open in app

31%

implied probability

YES 31¢NO 69¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$73K

24h volume

$220K

total volume

Jul 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
65¢ → 31¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)
1m ago
High volatility
±17¢ swing band
16m ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 30¢ (-69.2¢ in 15 min)
16m ago
Volume spike
$515 traded — 27.4× the average
19m ago
High volatility
±10.7¢ swing band
31m ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 99¢ (+89.1¢ in 15 min)
31m ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
46m ago
Volume spike
$125 traded — 15.7× the average
53m ago
High volatility
±15.1¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$80 traded — 10.1× the average
1h ago

How this market resolves

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.