Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 11, 2026Final price 98¢ YES — the market gave this a 98% implied probability.

Part of MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?" resolved YES on August 11, 2026 at a final price of 98¢ YES — a 98% implied probability — after $28K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

98%

implied probability

YES 98¢NO 2¢

recent price

+88¢ over the window

+88¢

24h change

$20

24h volume

$28K

total volume

Aug 11, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±16.2¢ swing band
49d ago
Odds swing
25¢ → 89¢ (+64¢ in 15 min)
49d ago
High volatility
±13.8¢ swing band
49d ago
Odds swing
32¢ → 10¢ (-22¢ in 15 min)
49d ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
49d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 11, 2026. Its final traded price was 98¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 98¢ — an implied probability of 98%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.