Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? — live odds
"Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $10K has changed hands so far, $44 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$44
24h volume
$10K
total volume
Aug 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at — and NO at —, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$10K has been traded in total, $44 of it in the last 24 hours.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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