Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — live odds

Part of Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31" is trading at a 26% implied probability, with YES at 26¢ and NO at 75¢. $218K has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

26%

implied probability

YES 26¢NO 75¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$218K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.