Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $252K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

1%

implied probability

YES NO 99¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$252K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Quick answers

How did "Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$252K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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