Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 4, 2026Final price 97¢ YES — the market gave this a 97% implied probability.

"Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?" resolved YES on August 4, 2026 at a final price of 97¢ YES — a 97% implied probability — after $30K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

97%

implied probability

YES 97¢NO 3¢

recent price

+6¢ over the window

+6¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$30K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±45.1¢ swing band
47d ago
High volatility
±54.8¢ swing band
47d ago
High volatility
±53.3¢ swing band
47d ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 7¢ (-90.9¢ in 15 min)
47d ago
High volatility
±45.1¢ swing band
47d ago
High volatility
±25¢ swing band
47d ago
Odds swing
96¢ → 13¢ (-82.8¢ in 15 min)
47d ago
High volatility
±26.2¢ swing band
47d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
47d ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 35¢ (-63.6¢ in 15 min)
47d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 97¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 97¢ — an implied probability of 97%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.