Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 4, 2026Final price 96¢ YES — the market gave this a 96% implied probability.

"Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?" resolved YES on August 4, 2026 at a final price of 96¢ YES — a 96% implied probability — after $118K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

96%

implied probability

YES 96¢NO 4¢

recent price

+16¢ over the window

+16¢

24h change

$8K

24h volume

$118K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±38¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±33.1¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 28¢ (-67.2¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±9.1¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
96¢ → 26¢ (-69.4¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 6¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±19.9¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 15¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±30.8¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Quick answers

How did "Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 96¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 96¢ — an implied probability of 96%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.