Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? — final odds

Resolved NO · October 18, 2026Final price 4¢ YES — the market gave this a 4% implied probability.

"Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?" resolved NO on October 18, 2026 at a final price of 4¢ YES — a 4% implied probability — after $81K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

—

24h change

$9K

24h volume

$81K

total volume

Oct 18, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.928 · edge: 0.062
124d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.931 · edge: 0.059
124d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.911 · edge: 0.079
124d ago

How this market resolves

The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Vancouver.

Quick answers

How did "Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on October 18, 2026. Its final traded price was 4¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 4¢ — an implied probability of 4%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.