Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 29, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?" resolved YES on August 29, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $69K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

—

24h change

$21K

24h volume

$69K

total volume

Aug 29, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Western Australian Electoral Commission (https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/).

Quick answers

How did "Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 29, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.