Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? — live odds

Part of Alaska Senate Election Winner· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" is trading at a 73% implied probability, with YES at 73¢ and NO at 28¢. $778K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

73%

implied probability

YES 73¢NO 28¢

recent price

-8¢ over the window

-8¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$778K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10.8¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 10¢ (-25¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±11.7¢ swing band
116d ago
High volatility
±6¢ swing band
116d ago
High volatility
±13¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 32¢ (+23¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±11.8¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 9¢ (-21¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±54.3¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 29¢ (-65¢ in 15 min)
116d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.