Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — live odds

"Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?" is trading at a 31% implied probability, with YES at 31¢ and NO at 70¢. $951K has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 3, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

31%

implied probability

YES 31¢NO 70¢

recent price

-8¢ over the window

-8¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$951K

total volume

Jan 3, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±32.6¢ swing band
41d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 94¢ (+93¢ in 15 min)
41d ago
High volatility
±36.8¢ swing band
41d ago
Odds swing
18¢ → 88¢ (+70¢ in 15 min)
41d ago
High volatility
±50.2¢ swing band
41d ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 1¢ (-93¢ in 15 min)
41d ago
High volatility
±39.1¢ swing band
41d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 99¢ (+95¢ in 15 min)
41d ago
High volatility
±66.6¢ swing band
41d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 94¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
41d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.