Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31? final odds

Resolved NO · July 31, 2026Final price YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?" resolved NO on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $37K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$25

24h volume

$37K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

How did "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$37K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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