
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — final odds
"Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?" resolved NO on August 13, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $66K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
1%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$374
24h volume
$66K
total volume
Aug 13, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Quick answers
How did "Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?" resolve?
This market resolved NO on August 13, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$66K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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