Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? — final odds

This market has ended · August 13, 2026Final price — YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?" resolved on August 13, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $2.0M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$133K

24h volume

$2.0M

total volume

Aug 13, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Quick answers

How did "Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?" resolve?

This market ended on August 13, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.