Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 4, 2026Final price 3¢ YES — the market gave this a 3% implied probability.

"Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?" resolved NO on August 4, 2026 at a final price of 3¢ YES — a 3% implied probability — after $34K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$34K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Quick answers

How did "Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 3¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 3¢ — an implied probability of 3%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.