Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? — live odds

"Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $115K has changed hands so far, $57K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

2%

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

-66¢ over the window

-66¢

24h change

$57K

24h volume

$115K

total volume

Nov 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?"?

The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by November 30, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page.

How much has been traded on this market?

$115K has been traded in total, $57K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Politics markets