Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 18, 2026Final price 99¢ YES — the market gave this a 99% implied probability.

"Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?" resolved YES on August 18, 2026 at a final price of 99¢ YES — a 99% implied probability — after $38K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

99%

implied probability

YES 99¢NO 1¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$38K

total volume

Aug 18, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
59d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022
60d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
60d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 18, 2026. Its final traded price was 99¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 99¢ — an implied probability of 99%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.