Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? — live odds
"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 95¢. $2.1M has changed hands so far, $413 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
6%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$413
24h volume
$2.1M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 3d ago
smart money move
How this market resolves
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 95¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.1M has been traded in total, $413 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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