Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? — live odds

Part of Alaska Senate Election Winner· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" is trading at a 15% implied probability, with YES at 15¢ and NO at 85¢. $25K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

15%

implied probability

YES 15¢NO 85¢

recent price

+10¢ over the window

+10¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$25K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±30.9¢ swing band
118d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 20¢ (-62.8¢ in 15 min)
118d ago
High volatility
±18.7¢ swing band
118d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 83¢ (+32.7¢ in 15 min)
118d ago
High volatility
±15.4¢ swing band
118d ago
Odds swing
56¢ → 97¢ (+41.1¢ in 15 min)
118d ago
High volatility
±25.6¢ swing band
118d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 50¢ (-14.4¢ in 15 min)
118d ago
High volatility
±16.5¢ swing band
118d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 64¢ (+63.9¢ in 15 min)
118d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.