
Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? — final odds
"Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?" resolved YES on October 16, 2026 at a final price of 99¢ YES — a 99% implied probability — after $39K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
99%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$33K
24h volume
$39K
total volume
Oct 16, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if no flight departs from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) for a period of at least 24 consecutive hours, where that period begins between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline cancellations, or reports that the airport is closed, suspended, or restricted will not qualify on their own if FlightAware displays departures. A qualifying period may begin as late as the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, and end after it. If a period without departures has begun but has not reached 24 consecutive hours by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either a flight departs RUH or 24 consecutive hours have elapsed. A qualifying closure counts regardless of its cause. The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).
Quick answers
How did "Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?" resolve?
This market resolved YES on October 16, 2026. Its final traded price was 99¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 99¢ — an implied probability of 99%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$39K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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