Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? — live odds

Part of Satoshi's identity be proven by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $935K has changed hands so far, $15 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$15

24h volume

$935K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.