Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $820K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-7¢ over the window

-7¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$820K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±32.3¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±19.9¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
79¢ → 2¢ (-77.3¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±6.6¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±30.6¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 3¢ (-71.7¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±36.5¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 75¢ (+74.7¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±30.6¢ swing band
12d ago
High volatility
±30.2¢ swing band
12d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.