Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-79¢ over the window

-79¢

24h change

$11K

24h volume

$688K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10.4¢ swing band
11m ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 0¢ (-69.7¢ in 15 min)
26m ago
High volatility
±11.8¢ swing band
41m ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 0¢ (-10.5¢ in 15 min)
41m ago
High volatility
±18.1¢ swing band
57m ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 90¢ (+84.6¢ in 15 min)
57m ago
High volatility
±18.6¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 80¢ (+77.3¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±12.6¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
8¢ → 79¢ (+70.6¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.