TL;DR
- 🐋 $88K whale sell impacts Strait of Hormuz market — price follows 98¢
- Fed rate hike odds surge 47¢ in 24 hours
- Jared Moskowitz market prices FL-25 primary win at 93%
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | ▲ +47¢ | 50¢ (50%) |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | ▼ -42.5¢ | 5.95¢ (6%) |
| Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%? | ▲ +36.5¢ | 93¢ (93%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | ▲ +28¢ | 41.5¢ (41.5%) |
The market for a Fed and macro odds rate hike in 2026 saw the largest 24-hour move, with odds increasing by 47¢ to price a 50% implied probability. This significant shift suggests traders are repricing future monetary policy. Understanding these moves requires keen attention to market dynamics, as detailed in our guide on how to read Polymarket.
🐋 Whale watch
The most substantial whale activity observed involved multiple SELL orders totaling $88,888 on the market for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?". These trades collectively impacted the price by 98.6¢, indicating a strong market sentiment against traffic normalization. Monitoring these large movements is key to whale watching guide on Polymarket.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin above $54k on August 19? | $1.7K | 53.4× |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? | $13 | 51.6× |
| Bitcoin price on August 20? | $1.2K | 31.8× |
Bitcoin price markets showed notable volume spikes today, particularly for "Bitcoin above $54k on August 19?" at 53.4x its average volume. Several Bitcoin price target tracker markets saw elevated trading activity.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several markets are slated to resolve in the next 48 hours. The market for "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?" concludes on August 20th. Esports markets, including various LoL matches like "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", are also set to resolve today, August 19th.
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