Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? — live odds
"Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?" is trading at a 98% implied probability, with YES at 98¢ and NO at 2¢. $821K has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
98%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$7K
24h volume
$821K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"?
The market currently prices YES at 98¢ and NO at 2¢, an implied probability of 98% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$821K has been traded in total, $7K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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