Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? live odds

"Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $1.7M has changed hands so far, $14K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

1%

implied probability

YES NO 99¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$14K

24h volume

$1.7M

total volume

Sep 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.958 · edge: 0.032

    19d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.968 · edge: 0.022

    62d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02

    62d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.967 · edge: 0.023

    66d ago
How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?"?

The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$1.7M has been traded in total, $14K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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