Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — live odds

Part of Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" is trading at a 60% implied probability, with YES at 60¢ and NO at 41¢. $986K has changed hands so far, $30 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

60%

implied probability

YES 60¢NO 41¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$30

24h volume

$986K

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±33.7¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 7¢ (-52¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
77d ago
High volatility
±48.9¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 7¢ (-84¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±17¢ swing band
77d ago
High volatility
±36.5¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 7¢ (-84¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
77d ago
High volatility
±33.9¢ swing band
78d ago

How this market resolves

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.