Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — live odds
59%
implied probability
recent price
-3¢ over the window
-3¢
24h change
$302
24h volume
$842K
total volume
Nov 7, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 32d ago
High volatility
±33.7¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 7¢ (-52¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±48.9¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 7¢ (-84¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±17¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±36.5¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
91¢ → 7¢ (-84¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±33.9¢ swing band
How this market resolves
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
The market currently prices YES at 59¢ and NO at 42¢, an implied probability of 59% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$842K has been traded in total, $302 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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