Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 4, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?" resolved NO on November 4, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $63K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

—

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$63K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±5.3¢ swing band

    139d ago
  • Odds swing

    83¢ → 60¢ (-23¢ in 15 min)

    139d ago
  • High volatility

    ±14.2¢ swing band

    139d ago
  • Odds swing

    60¢ → 2¢ (-58.5¢ in 15 min)

    139d ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.3¢ swing band

    139d ago
  • Odds swing

    61¢ → 6¢ (-55.3¢ in 15 min)

    139d ago
  • High volatility

    ±2.2¢ swing band

    139d ago
  • High volatility

    ±19.2¢ swing band

    139d ago
  • Odds swing

    73¢ → 60¢ (-13.1¢ in 15 min)

    139d ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.8¢ swing band

    139d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Quick answers

How did "Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$63K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

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