Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? — live odds

Part of What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?· see all 19 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $313K has changed hands so far, $369 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$369

24h volume

$313K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
78d ago
High volatility
±2.6¢ swing band
78d ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 12¢ (-18¢ in 15 min)
78d ago
High volatility
±3.8¢ swing band
78d ago
Odds swing
28¢ → 52¢ (+24¢ in 15 min)
78d ago
High volatility
±3.2¢ swing band
78d ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
78d ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
78d ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 26¢ (-68¢ in 15 min)
78d ago
High volatility
±26.5¢ swing band
78d ago

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.