Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — live odds
41%
implied probability
recent price
-2¢ over the window
-2¢
24h change
$34
24h volume
$1.1M
total volume
Nov 7, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 33d ago
High volatility
±22.6¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 39¢ (-16¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
High volatility
±5.6¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
45¢ → 39¢ (-6¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
High volatility
±33.3¢ swing band
- 33d ago
High volatility
±10.4¢ swing band
- 33d ago
High volatility
±18.3¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 79¢ (+40¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
High volatility
±34.8¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 20¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
The market currently prices YES at 41¢ and NO at 60¢, an implied probability of 41% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.1M has been traded in total, $34 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Politics markets
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
70%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
28%