Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? — live odds

Part of Maine Senate Election Winner· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?" is trading at a 30% implied probability, with YES at 30¢ and NO at 71¢. $538K has changed hands so far, $632 of it in the past 24 hours. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

30%

implied probability

YES 30¢NO 71¢

recent price

+24¢ over the window

+24¢

24h change

$632

24h volume

$538K

total volume

TBD

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±31.6¢ swing band
85d ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 72¢ (+32¢ in 15 min)
85d ago
High volatility
±35.8¢ swing band
85d ago
High volatility
±32.1¢ swing band
85d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 96¢ (+94¢ in 15 min)
85d ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
85d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 4¢ (-31¢ in 15 min)
85d ago
High volatility
±46.5¢ swing band
85d ago
Odds swing
82¢ → 94¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
85d ago
High volatility
±46.1¢ swing band
85d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.